The potential ramifications of EU enlargement

The recent accession of ten countries and over 100 million people to the EU to make the number of countries up to 25 will undoubtedly have far reaching effects on all the members of the EU.

Primarily a lot of arguments have been based on the budget, the existing members being reluctant to fund the accession states to their own detriment. However it is worth noting that the total budget only makes up 1.27% of the EU GDP. Although this is quite a sum of money, the subsequent trade links and investment flows linked with enlargement could mean more to the countries in the long term.

The budget has always been a contentious issue, even inside countries where different sectors are competing with one another, so now this will no doubt be heavily debated with countries airing views and forming alliances. What is sure is that certain sectors will not get nearly as much as they previously were allocated, eg Polish farmers will only receive 25% of the previous budget so will undoubtedly feel somewhat aggrieved about this.

Enlargement is about more than the budget, even though this has a tendency to dominate. There are substantial political dynamics at work and shifting coalitions will play a much bigger part. In essence this means that countries will form alliances with those that best represent their interests on a particular topic. Gone are the days when one country will consistently back up a neighbour. The Eastern bloc will not be a united ‘Trojan horse’ relentlessly pursuing an agreed agenda; rather it is a conglomeration of different nations who will fight for what is relevant and beneficial to them. Historical alliances will mean little now and the new members will be very important in tipping the balance on a range of issues and Poland being a very large country with almost 40 million, will have considerable influence. Also large states will not dominate Europe the way they previously did as the legacy of history will be exactly that, history. The new members must not fear that Brussels is going to merely displace Moscow as a central command point.

Countries will no longer be judged just on their politics. Other factors such as administrative capacity and public opinion weigh heavily on a country’s position and influence now. Of course there is some euro-scepticism within a lot of members both old and new and enlargement will lend itself to this. The pessimistic view looks at an EU that had trouble thinking strategically with 15 members let alone 25, so how will it organise and control these? Obviously the focus will be internal for the short term to the detriment of other issues for example foreign policy. The optimistic viewpoint looks at not just the internals of the EU but the fact that it will be the world’s biggest marketplace now and deal with issues on an EU level and react as Europeans not just nationalities.

For further articles on this topic by Heather Grabbe please visit the Centre for European Reform website at www.cer.org.uk . See especially essays entitled 'The Copenhagen deal for enlargement' and 'Shaken to the core' at www.cer.org.uk/enlargement/index.html